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Election 2014 results here

November 3, 2014

The results for Walpole’s Question #5, the facilities override, will be posted here, and on the Sam Obar 180 Twitter beginning when polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday, November 4. You can also check the separate Sam Obar Twitter throughout the day for occasional updates.

In addition, 180 will post town results for the statewide races. Charlie Baker is expected to do well in Walpole in his race for governor, but political observers are waiting to see if he will top Scott Brown’s 9,002 votes (64 percent) in Walpole from 2012 – a record high for a Republican statewide candidate in Walpole. In his 2010 race, Mr. Baker scored 6,039 votes in Walpole in an election with lower turnout than in 2012. In all likelihood, he will win somewhere between 7,000 and 8,500 votes in Walpole this year.

In the state rep. race that covers half of Walpole (Precincts 1, 2, 6, and 7) and all of Norwood, Republican Tim Hempton will need to roll up big margins in Walpole in order to overcome incumbent Democratic Rep. John Rogers’ base in Norwood.

Mr. Hempton needs to top the numbers that Jim Stanton received in his own unsuccessful races against Rep. Rogers in 2010 and 2012. That means Mr. Hempton likely needs at least 4,000 votes in Walpole. Mr. Stanton received 3,466 votes in Walpole in the 2012 election, and about 3,029 votes in 2010. In both races, Mr. Stanton won Walpole but not by a big enough margin to avoid being swamped in Norwood.

All indications are that Rep. Rogers has the upper hand in his race for re-election, but he has been worn down after three consecutive competitive election campaigns. Mr. Hempton has made inroads in Norwood and has benefited from the base developed by Mr. Stanton. Republicans and conservative independent voters are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in the past two elections. Mr. Baker is expected to win in the district, so Mr. Hempton only stands to benefit from his coattails. Democrats do not have an inspiring gubernatorial nominee on the ballot this year to boost party turnout like they did in 2010.

Ultimately, it is hard to beat a long-time, well known incumbent with institutional support like Rep. Rogers. If Mr. Hempton prevails against the odds, it will be nothing short of an upset, but it is a very doable upset. The election will be close, no matter how it turns out.

The override vote is expected to be close. Shortly before the 2012 town election, with a school-oriented override on the ballot, most political observers had a pretty good read on the ground that the override supporters had momentum going into the vote. In this case, with an organized ground game working hard on both sides of Question #5, it is hard to gauge how the override will fare. The final results will likely come down to which side had a better message and which side was able to distribute this message to a wider audience. The override is favored to win in three of eight precincts, expected to lose in at least two precincts, with a few other precincts likely being the deciding factor.

No matter how you plan to vote, or who you plan to vote for, the most important thing is to remember to VOTE.

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